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Forecasts Made on November 25:


No new event is forecasted in this week.


Follow up on Forecasts Made in Previous Weeks:

As last week’s forecasts, the first peak of STRAT_C (11/18-11/22) just passed by and below-normal temperatures had been recorded over both continents in the week before Thanksgiving. Severe wintery precipitation was reported over East Asia and surface air temperature had dropped significantly across the entire North American continent. Noticeably, this round of cold surges affected regions as south as 25°N, and even Florida had suffered from it. Three days after the first peak, the second peak of STRAT_C (11/25-11/29) is going to bring more cold polar air southward mainly via North American route, which will bring another round of cold air surges in the mid-latitude region there, consistent with the week-1 forecasts of surface air temperature from the GFS model. Therefore, STRAT_C indeed makes the 2015 Thanksgiving a cold one. Afterwards, surface air temperature in the mid-latitudes is expected to rise up quickly during the first week of December.


STRAT_D (11/30-12/05), firstly forecasted to occur between 12/02 and 12/08 on October 21, is expected to occur slightly earlier. As we forecasted last week, the intensity of STRAT_D is going to be a weak event, and its resultant decrease in areas occupied by below-normal surface air temperatures is limited and may only affect North American within a few days after the peak dates of STRAT_D.


STRAT_E (12/11-12/16), first forecasted on November 12, is still expected to be on time. There is STRAT_E looks to be stronger than STRAT_D, thus we expect cold air outbreaks over both continents in mid-latitudes.


STRAT_F (12/19-12/24), is still expected to be a major and long-lasting stratospheric pulse event, which is coming during 12/19-12/24, as first forecasted on November 12. Associated with STRAT_F, major cold air outbreaks will take place over both North American and Eurasian continents, which may affect the Christmas holiday travelers.

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