New Forecasts Made on November 19:

 

No new event is forecasted in this week.

 

Follow up on Forecast Made in Previous Week:

 

 

The CFS forecast of STRAT_C (11/18-11/22, 11/25-11/29) turns out to be quite tricky: we first officially forecasted STRAT_C on October 7 to occur during the period 11/16-11/22; on October 14, based on the updated forecast data, we revised the date range for the occurrence of STRAT_C into 11/20-11/27, which is 5 days later than the original forecasts; and then we made a second revision of the date range, which is further 5 days later (11/25-11/29) in last week’s forecasts. However, as it is close by, STRAT_C looks to have twin peaks, one on 11/21, and another one on 11/27. Therefore, the first peak was faithfully captured by the CFS forecasts with a forecast lead time of one month, while the second peak show up only in forecasts with a forecast lead time of two weeks. The first peak of STRAT_C is likely to bring cold air temperatures into both continents in the mid-latitudes, particularly the eastern half of the continent North America and East Asia, which coincides well with the week-1 forecasts of surface air temperature from the GFS model. And several days after the second peak date, an increase of area occupied by below-normal temperature anomalies are expected mainly over North America, consistent with the week-2 forecasts of surface air temperature from the GFS model. Due to the cold air surges brought about by the twin peaks of STRAT_C, the 2015 Thanksgiving travel could be interrupted.

 

STRAT_D (12/02-12/08), is still expected to be on time as we originally forecasted to occur between 12/02 and 12/08 on October 21. The intensity of STRAT_D looks to be weaker than we expected, but it is still able to bring a new round of cold air surges to both North American and Eurasian continents within a few days after the peak dates of STRAT_D.

 

STRAT_E(12/11-12/16),first forecasted on November 12, is still expected to occur between 12/11 and 12/16. STRAT_E looks to be stronger than STRAT_D, thus we expect major cold air outbreaks mainly over the North American and Eurasian continents. This may cause an interruption of the 2015 pre-Christmas holiday travel.

 

STRAT_F (12/19-12/24), first forecasted on November 12, is still expected to be a major stratospheric pulse event, which is coming on time. Associated with STRAT_F , another round of major cold air outbreaks will take place in mid-latitudes, especially North America. Thus, the STRAT_F event may affect the Christmas holiday travelers.