New Forecasts Made on November 04：

No new event is forecasted in this week.

 

Follow up on Forecast Made in Previous Week:

 

STRAT_B (11/01-11/06), which was first forecasted on October 7 to occur in 11/01-11/06, has been materized. The first peak of the STRAT_B has already occured ot 10/30, with a peak intensity of 0.8 trillion tons air mass transported into the polar stratosphere per day. Associated with that, cold air surges took place over both continents, especially North America, around the first peak date of STRAT_B. The STRAT_B will have the second peak on 11/06, transporting about 0.7 trillion tons air mass into the polar stratosphere per day. Its impact is going to on only one of the two continents, namely North America, therefore, we expect a remarkable increase in the percentage of area occupied by below-normal temperatures from 20% to 60% there with a few days after the second peak. Based on the one-week forecasts of surface air temperature from CFS models, the cold temperatures first occur in the west coast region of United States on 11/04-11/05 and pervade the whole states afterwards.

 

STRAT_B1 (11/10-11/15), first forecasted on October 15, is still expected to be on time with relatively weak intensity, which mainly affects North America, causing a minor cold event.

 

STRAT_C (11/21-11/25), first forecasted on October 7, is still expected to occur in the third week of November. STRAT_C is likely to bring cold air temperatures into the mid-latitudes, particularly North America, which may cause interruption of Thanksgiving holiday travel.

 

STRAT_D (12/02-12/08), keeps showing up on time as first forecasted on October 21. STRAT_D looks to be a strong event and we expect cold air outbreaks over both North American and Eurasian continents.