New Forecasts Made on January 6：
No new event is forecasted in this week’s forecasts.
The stratospheric polar vortex may NOT break completely until a much later time.
The first weakening event of stratospheric polar vortex in 2015/16 after H has been materialized. The stratospheric polar vortex has been showing a lopsided shape since 01/04. However, the intensity of STRAT_J, which was expected to break the polar vortex completely in the previous forecasts, looks to be much weaker. As a result, the stratospheric polar vortex, which has been anomalously strong in this winter, will largely remain intact after STRAT_J. For this reason, we are canceling the forecasts for the breakup event of “stratospheric polar vortex” after STRAT_J.
Follow up on Forecasts Made in Previous Weeks:
STRAT_H (01/02-01/08), which was first forecasted on December 3, already had two peaks: one on 01/04 and the other on 01/06, with peak intensity as large as 1.1 trillion tons per day of warm air mass into the polar stratosphere. This is the strongest STRAT event so far in this winter. As a result, the cold areas have been increased by 25% over North America and by 30% over Eurasia in the first week of 2016.
STRAT_I (01/13-01/19), first forecasted on December 11, is also expected to occur on time. We are continuing to forecast STRAT_I to be a moderate and short-lived event, which refuel the cold air mass over both continents, leading to large area of below-normal temperatures.
STRAT_J (01/21-01/27), first forecasted on December 23, is still expected to occur within the forecasted range. Based on the updated forecast data, STRAT_J turns out not as strong as we expected in last week’s forecasts. Its peak intensity may be 0.9 trillion tons per day at most. As we forecasted, STRAT_J will have multiple peaks, with duration as long as one week. Following STRAT_J, cold surges are expected to take place over mid-latitudes of both North American and Eurasian continents.
STRAT_K (02/02-02/07), first forecasted on December 31, is expected to take place on time. STRAT_K looks to be a moderate PULSE event associated with cold air surges over both continents, particularly for North American.
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