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New Forecasts Made on October 1:


For this week, we are not confident to officially forecast any new events. However, we do see some concrete evidence indicating two new events of stronger mass transport into the polar stratosphere lining up to occur in the first week and third week of November. The first one seems to be a weak PULSE event whereas the second is a major PULSE event. We will continue to monitor these two new events and will officially name them as STRAT_B and C events if they continue to show up in next week’s forecasts.


Follow up on Forecast Made in Previous Week:


STRAT_A (10/25-10/28), first forecasted on September 24 to occur between October 21 and 28, is still expected during that period. With new information, we have further narrowed down the date range for STRAT_A to occur in 10/25-10/28. The cold surges associated with the STRAT_A event are going to take place within a few days after the peak date of STRAT_A, resulting in below-normal temperature readings and precipitation events over a large percentage of area of both the North American and Eurasian continents around Halloween.



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