Weekly Highlights

(12/05/2014  − 12/11/2014)

·        Our forecast for STRAT_D1, which was first forecasted on November 25, 2014, remains unchanged.  It is still forecasted to transport more than 700 billion tons per day of mass into the polar stratosphere with peak days between the period of December 18 -24. This event is the last strong circulation event of the 2014 year. We are still forecasting for wintery precipitation to impact pre-holiday travel in the week before Christmas for the continents of North America, East Asia, and Europe, particularly over North America. Within these regions, large-scale major cold air outbreaks are expected, bringing below normal temperatures across much of the area, making for very chilly conditions throughout.

·         The current weak circulation is still expected to persist until the STRAT_D1 event.  Average and above average temperatures will remain until this next series of cold air waves which is expected to occur within the period  of STRAT_D1, as mentioned above.

·         STRAT_E, which we first forecasted on November 20 to occur in the week around New Year, is still looking to be weaker than STRAT_D1.  STRAT_E will bring in another round cold air outbreaks within the week around New Year and this event still poses a thread to affect post-holiday travel.

·       Officially forecasted on 12/04/14, the STRAT_F event is still looking to peak during January 15-20.  STRAT_F event is forecasted to have a peak intensity of approximately 900 billion tons per day, and it is still expect to produce cold air outbreaks both continents, but with strongest impact over the East coast of North America because of the strength of this outbreak.

Forecasts Made on December 11, 2014 
 

Follow up on Forecast Made in Previous Weeks:

·       No Changes in forecasts for STRAT_D1 event (first forecasted on Nov. 25), which is expected to produce wintery precipitation to impact pre-holiday travel in the week before Christmas for the continents of North America, East Asia, and Europe, particularly over North America.

·       No changes in forecasts for STRAT_E (first forecasted on November 20). STRAT E will produce modest cold temperature events in the first week of January following New Years Eve, which still has a possibility to impact post-holiday travel.

·       No Changes in forecasts for STRAT_F. (first forecasted on December 4). STRAT_F will cause the first strong round of cold air outbreaks in 2015 over the two continents. STRAT_F event will be a strong event with peak intensity of exceeding 800 billion tons per day.

New Forecasts Made on December 11, 2014

·       No new forecasts for a new event.