The STRAT_C, which consisted of two peaks, took place on 11/8 and 11/12, almost exactly the same the range as we predicted since Oct. 6 (11/12-11/15 forecasted on Oct. 6 and 11/7-11/11 revised on Oct. 21). Approximately 80% of the North America has suffered through below-normal temperatures and dealt with heavy winter precipitation leading the cold air passage as well.
The STRAT_C1, which we forecasted first on November 6, 2014 to take place in the week around 11/18, had the first peak on 11/17 and the second peak on 11/20. The STRAT_C1 event is the strongest event recorded this winter so far: it had delivered more than 600 billion tons of air mass per day into the polar stratosphere since 11/16 and the peak intensity on 11/20 exceeded 1 trillion tons a day. Due to the back-to-back STRAT_C and STRAT_C1 events, more than 90% area over North America has suffered from below-normal temperatures.
STRAT_D is still mostly likely to peak towards the end of the first week in December within the dates of 12/03 - 12/07 as we first forecasted on October 28. The cold air outbreaks associated STRAT_D are expected not as strong as the STRAT_C1 cold-air waves. This will be the last major cold air outbreak expected before the Christmas time.
We are now officially calling for STRAT_E event to occur near the end of December, between Christmas and New Year. Major cold air outbreaks are expected around that time, which would have impact on holiday travel because of its large impact area (continental scale).
Forecasts made on November 20, 2014
· STRAT_D, first forecasted on October 28, has officially pushed into the first week of December and is looking to peak between the dates of 12/03 -12/07. This cold air outbreak is expected to transport 600 billion tons of per day of mass into the polar circle through the Stratosphere.
· We are now officially calling for STRAT_E event to occur in the last week of December, around of Christmas time. Major cold air outbreaks are expected between Christmas and New Year. This round of cold air outbreak events will bring in below normal temperatures for much of the area within the middle latitudes.
· The 2-3 weeks between STRA_D and STRAT_E events would be mild, as we first forecasted on November 6.