Weekly Highlights

(11/07-11/13)

·       The first peak of the STRAT_C took place on November 9, delivering 450 billion ton of warm air mass per day into the polar stratosphere. The second peak is expected to take place on November 14 with peak intensity close to 500 billion tons per day. We have forecasted the STRAT_C event to take place between November 12-15 in all weekly forecasts since October 6, 2014. As a result of the twin peaks of the STRAT_C event, nearly 80% area over North America suffer from below-normal temperatures in this weekend.

·       As first forecasted on November 6, 2014, STRAT_C1 is forecasted to transport more than 700 billion tons of air mass per day into the polar stratosphere, peaking around November 20. The STRAT_C event is expected to bring major cold air breaks over both continents. Since this is just a week after the major cold air outbreak over North America, we expect more than 80% area over North America will suffer from below-normal temperatures in the week around November 20.  Because STRAT_C has not brought continental scale cold air outbreaks to Eurasian, the area of below-normal temperatures over Eurasia during STRAT_C1 event is expected to be less than 60%.

·       STRAT_D will mostly likely peak towards the end of the first week in December within the dates of 11/26- 12/07 as we first forecasted on October 28.  The cold air outbreaks associated STRAT_D are expected not as strong as the STRAT_C1 cold-air waves. This is expected to be the last major cold air outbreak event after 5-6 weeks of back-to-back major cold air outbreaks associated with STRAT_B, STRAT_C, and STRAT_C1 events before the time around New Year’s Day of 2015.

·       The last three weeks of December are expected to have above-normal temperatures and therefore, the month of the 2014 December is expected a mild winter month, as we first forecasted in November 6.

Forecasts made on November 13, 2014

First forecasted on November 6, 2014

Consistent with last week's forecast, STRAT_C1 is expected to be a prolonged event (from Nov. 18 to Nov. 23). It has increased in intensity with a mass transport into the polar stratosphere at a rate over 700 billion tons per day. Because of these back-to-back weeklong STRAT events (C and C1), we continue to expect this November to be a below-normal cold November.  Approximately 80% of USA is expected to experience this cold wave.

First forecasted on October 28 and revised on November 6, 2014

In this weekly forecast, we still expect the STRAT_D event to remain a week long event and to occur between the dates of 11/26- 12/07, at a rate of about 500 billion tons per day.  This is expected to be the last major cold air outbreak event after 5-6 weeks of back-to-back major cold air outbreaks associated with STRAT_B, STRAT_C, and STRAT_C1 events before the time around New Year’s Day of 2015.

First forecasted on November 6, 2014

We still expect that the middle two weeks of December are going to be mild. This above-normal mild winter weather may last till the end of the last week of December. The STRAT_E event is still expected to take place in the last few days of 2014 and the first week of January, 2015.

No new events are forecasted in this weekly forecast