What we do: We are making sub-seasonal forecasts for time periods of high probability of cold air outbreaks in Eurasia and North America 30-40 days in advance. We issue such forecasts on a weekly basis and this website is updated around Thursday each week.
The 2016-2017 Forecast Season has begun!
New Forecast Made on November 11:
So far, there were only three stratospheric PULSE events happening. Within a month from today, we only have two minor PULSE events down the road. Therefore, we forecast mild conditions over both continents in the next 30 days or so, other than the week after Thanksgiving due to the STRAT_C event.
Follow up on Forecast Made in the Previous Weeks:
STRAT_B1 (11/05 – 11/10), officially forecasted on 10/14, has been materialized. The peak of the STRAT_B1 has already occurred on 11/08, with a peak intensity of 0.6 trillion-ton air mass transported into the polar stratosphere per day. Therefore, our forecast for STRAT_B1 was accurate in terms of both timing and intensity at a lead time of 22 days. Associated with that, cold air surges mainly took place over Eurasia continent, especially Europe and East Asia, with over 60% of area under below-normal temperature condition. STRAT_B1 is affecting North America now. It is expected that up to 50% of the area over North America will report below-normal temperatures in the next few days.
STRAT_B2 (11/15 – 11/21), which is forecasted on 10/21, is still expected to occur between 11/15 and 11/21, with a peak around 11/18. The peak intensity of STRAT_B2 will be over 0.8 trillion-ton per day. We expect that STRAT_B2 mainly affects mid-latitude regions in the North America where about 50% of the area will report below-normal temperatures within a few days around its peak time.
STRAT_C (11/25 – 11/30), first forecasted on 10/14 at a lead time of 40 days, is still going to take place in the period 11/25 to 11/30, with the main peak around 11/28. STRAT_C looks to be a modest event transporting about 1 trillion-ton air mass per day into the polar region at its peak time. It will greatly affect mid-latitudes of both continents.
Like us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/amccao