Forecasts made on October 13, 2014
Our forecast for STRAT_A event appears to be a correct since the weather events in the past few days and the latest forecasts for a few days after all confirm cold air waves associated with a strong STRAT event that transported about 600 billion tons into the polar stratosphere on October 11, a few days earlier than what we has been forecasted since 9/29. Also the cold air branch transport had a pronounced peak at 9 trillion tons per day on October 10 out of the polar region.
Looking into the future, there is looking to be a high possibility of a cold air outbreak event happening between the time period of 10/28-11/01 around the Halloween weekend associated with STRAT_B event, as we forecasted since 9/29. The models have indicated the possibility of having a large flux of approximately 8.5 trillion tons in transport by the cold branch. This amount of mass transport can bring below normal temperature in the last week of October across much of the mid-latitudes.
Indications from the forecast still hold for the chance of another cold wave making its way into the picture in the month of November, possibly occurring within the first and last week of November. The latter could impact the week of Thanksgiving.