What we do: We are making sub-seasonal forecasts for time periods of high probability of cold air outbreaks in Eurasia and North America 30-40 days in advance. We issue such forecasts on a weekly basis and this website is updated around Thursday each week.
The 2016-2017 Forecast Season has begun!
New Forecast Made on October 21:
No new event is forecasted in this week.
Follow up on Forecast Made in the Previous Weeks:
STRAT_B (10/26 – 10/31), which was forecasted on 10/07, is happening right now. STRAT_B peaked on 10/26, transported over 1.1 trillion-ton of air mass per day into the polar stratosphere at its peak time. Associated with that, cold air surges are taking place over the entire Eurasia, and the previously warm temperature over North America is decreasing as well. Northeast parts of China and those of North America are experiencing snow, and we expect up to 80% area of the Eurasia continent will suffer below normal temperature in the next few days.
STRAT_B1 (11/05 – 11/10), officially forecasted on 10/14, is expected to take place on time with a peak around 10/08. As START_B2, it is a relatively weak event associated with minor cold waves.
STRAT_B2 (11/15 – 11/21), which is forecasted on 10/21, is still expected to occur between 11/15 and 11/21, with a peak around 11/18. The peak intensity of STRAT_B2 looks to increase according to the latest forecasts. We will keep monitoring this event to see if it would cause major CAOs over North America and Eurasia continents.
STRAT_C (11/25 – 11/30), first forecasted on 10/14 at a lead time of 40 days, is still going to take place in the period 11/25 to 11/30. STRAT_C looks to be a strong and long-lasting event after a relatively long warm period between B and C, transporting more than 1 trillion-ton air mass per day into the polar region at its peak time (around 11/30). It will greatly affect mid-latitudes of both continents.
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