What we do: We are making sub-seasonal forecasts for time periods of high probability of cold air outbreaks in Eurasia and North America 30-40 days in advance. We issue such forecasts on a weekly basis and this website is updated around Thursday each week.
The 2016-2017 Forecast Season has begun!
New Forecast Made on October 21:
STRAT_B2 (11/15 – 11/21)
The new stratospheric PULSE event we are forecasting is named as STRAT_B2, which is expected to occur between 11/15 and 11/21, with a peak around 11/18. As STRAT_B1, STRAT_B2 is also a weak event during the intermission of strong wave activities, thus it would not cause major CAOs over North America and Eurasia continents.
Follow up on Forecast Made in the Previous Weeks:
STRAT_A (10/16 – 10/21), our first official forecast this winter made on September 30 occurred in time with two peaks of 10/16 and 10/20. STRAT_A indeed was relatively weak PULSE event transported only 0.3 trillion-ton of air per day into the polar region at its peak time. The most severely affected area is over the northern part of Eurasia. 65% of Eurasia is occupied by below-normal temperatures. For North America, only the central part is affected.
STRAT_B (10/26 – 10/31), first officially forecasted on 10/07, is still expected to occur on time with a peak around 10/29. It is a relatively strong event, transporting over 0.7 trillion-ton of air masses per day into the polar stratosphere at its peak time. As a result, North America and the mid-latitude regions of Eurasia will suffer a new round of cold air surges around Halloween.
STRAT_B1 (11/05 – 11/10), officially forecasted on 10/14, is expected to take place on time with a peak around 10/08. As START_B2, it is a weak event associated with minor cold waves.
STRAT_C (11/25 – 11/30), officially forecasted on 10/14 at a lead time of 40 days, is still going to take place in the period 11/25 to 11/30. STRAT_C looks to be a strong event after a relatively long warm period between B and C, transporting more than 0.6 trillion-ton air mass per day into the polar region at its peak time (around 11/26). It will mainly affect North America with more than 60% of area occupied by below-normal temperatures.
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