What we do: We are making sub-seasonal forecasts for time periods of high probability of cold air outbreaks in Eurasia and North America 30-40 days in advance. We issue such forecasts on a weekly basis and this website is updated around Thursday each week.

 

The 2016-2017 Forecast Season has begun!

 

New Forecasts Made on October 14:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Forecast Made on October 14:

 

STRAT_B1 (11/05 – 11/10)

The second peak of STRAT_B delays and becomes a distinct peak from the first peak of STRAT_B. Therefore we name it as a new event STRAT_B1. It is expected to occur between 11/06 and 11/10, with a peak around 10/08. STRAT_B1 looks to be a strong event. Thus, the associated cold air outbreaks are expected over both North American and Eurasian continents.

 

STRAT_C (11/25 – 11/30)

The second new stratospheric PULSE event we are forecasting is named as STRAT_C, which is expected to occur between 11/25 and 11/30. We believe STRAT_C is going to be a strong event happening in the Thanksgiving holiday, which will likely cause interruption of holiday travelers.

 

 

Follow up on Forecast Made in the Previous Weeks:

 

The first stratospheric PULSE event that we mentioned on 9/30 occurred with two peaks on 10/07 and 10/11. 60% of both North America and Eurasia continents experienced below-normal temperature.

 

STRAT_A (10/16 – 10/21), our first official forecast this winter made on September 30, is expected to take place on time in the period 10/16 – 10/21 with its peak on 10/19. STRAT_A looks relatively weak, but may affect both North America and Eurasia continents, especially Eurasia. We expect up to 70% of Eurasia and 50% of North America will be occupied by below-normal temperatures.

 

STRAT_B (10/26 – 10/31), first officially forecasted on 10/07 with two peaks, will take place around the end of October as expected. Since the second peak of STRAT_B delays, we now forecast main peak associated with STRAT_B to take place around 10/29. It is a relatively strong event, transporting over 0.6 trillion ton of air masses per day into the polar stratosphere. As a result, North America and the northern part of Eurasia will suffer a new round of cold air surges around Halloween.

 

 

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