New Forecasts Made on September 30:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Forecasts Made on September 30:

STRAT_A (10/16-10/21)

 

In this week, we officially kick off our sub-seasonal forecasts of cold air outbreaks for the 2016 – 2017 winter. By the end of next week, there will be a Stratospheric PULSE event with peak time around 10/07, which would accompany with cold air incursions over both continents.

 

The first forecasted PULSE event, named as STRAT_A, is expected to occur from 10/16 to 10/21 with a peak around 10/18. Considering the time now is only middle October and it has been anomalously warm over the Arctic, the intensity of STRAT_A is relatively very weak. Nevertheless, it may bring cold incursions to Eurasia and North America with below-normal temperatures covering up to 50% of the area. Although the real temperature drop may not be significant, it is indeed relatively cold compared to the climatological temperature for middle October.