Weekly Highlights: WINTER IS NOT OVER YET!!

(03/06/2015  − 03/12/2015)

 

• Originally forecasted on 02/12 to occur between 03/12-03/17, STRAT_J will have triple major peaks, first on 03/16, second on 03/18 (strongest), and third on 03/23 with the peak intensity of 700-900 billion tons per day of warm air delivered to the polar stratosphere as we updated in the last week’s forecasts.  Associated with STRAT_J, we expect a new round of major cold air outbreaks over North American with up to 60% area plunging into below-normal temperatures within few days after the first major peak of STRAT_J.  Wintery storm may take place from the Midwest to Northeast of US during this round of cold air outbreaks.  Eurasian continent will also experience minor-to-modest cold air outbreaks. The cold condition is expected to last one week due to the multiple peaks of STRAT_J.

 

• STRAT_K, which was first forecasted on 02/18 to occur in the last week of March, is expected to occur slightly later, in the last few days of March and the first few days of April because of the long-lasting STRAT_J event.  STRAT_K is a relatively long-lasting event with multiple peaks. Therefore, we still expect that a large portion of the area over both North America and Eurasia will report below-normal temperatures from the last few days of March into the first week of April, as we first forecasted.  In particular, we expect back-to-back series of precipitation events sweeping through the US in the period from the last few days of March and into the first week of April. 

Forecasts Made on March 12, 2015

 

Follow up on Forecast Made in Previous Weeks:

  

·       STRAT_J has remained quite persistent and is expected to peak on 03/16, 03/18, and 03/23. This event will mainly impact the North American continent, which may bring a new round of wintery storms over Midwest and Northeast of US, and below-normal temperatures to the Eurasian continent in lesser severity.

 

·       STRAT_K has been pushed a few days later. The revised forecasts call it to occur within the last few days of March and first week of April.  This event is going to be a long-lasting event. As a result, this event is still expected to cause temperature plunging drastically over North America and modest temperature dropping over Eurasia.

 

New Forecasts Made on March 12, 2015

 

·       There are no forecasts for a new event in this week's forecasts