What we do: We are making sub-seasonal forecasts for time periods of high probability of cold air outbreaks in Eurasia and North America 30-40 days in advance. We issue such forecasts on a weekly basis and this website is updated around Thursday each week.
New Feature: Maps of probability of cold surface temperature anomalies over both North America and Eurasia continents in the vicinity of forecasted stratospheric PULSE events
New Forecast Made on March 17:
No new stratospheric PULSE event is forecasted this week.
Follow up on Forecast Made in the Previous Weeks:
STRAT_I (03/08 – 03/12), first forecasted on 02/11, with a nearly 30-day lead time, has been materialized. It transported 0.8 trillion tons of air mass into the polar region on its peak date (03/14). It had huge impacts on East Coast United States. Associated with STRAT_I, winter storm Stella brought below normal temperature conditions to nearly 80% area in North America continent.
STRAT_J (03/24 – 03/28), first forecasted on 03/10, is expected to occur between 03/24 and 03/28. STRAT_J looks to be a moderate event with peak net air mass transport into the polar stratosphere about 0.6 trillion tons per day. A large portion (50% of the area) of mid-latitude regions over Eurasia continent and up to 70% area in North America would suffer below normal temperatures in the last week of March (see map forecasts).
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