(02/06/2015 − 02/12/2015)
· STRAT_H has a minor peak today (02/12) and is expected to have two stronger peaks on 02/15 and 02/18. These three peaks are within the range of 02/13-02/18 as we first forecasted on 01/10/2015. The first peak of STRAT_H proceeds with a synoptic scale frontal system that is passing through the eastern US now, which delivers the first round of cold air and wintery precipitation. Accompanied with the two stronger peaks of STRAT_H are two major cold air discharge events in the troposphere, delivering a net of 14-15 trillion tons of cold air into mid-latitudes on 02/14 and 02/18. These two major cold air discharge events will be ranked as the third strongest event this winter. A much stronger cold air outbreak is forecasted to occur in the Valentine’s Day weekend, which brings in record-breaking temperatures across the eastern US. The third peak of STRAT_H appears to mainly impact Eurasia with up to 60% area there suffering below-normal temperatures.
· STRAT_I is still expected to arrive on time, namely between 02/27 and 03/04 as we first forecasted on 01/29. This event will bring a new round of cold air surge into mid-latitudes in the first week of March.
· This week, we are forecasting for STRAT_J to occur between 3/12- 3/17.
Forecasts Made on February 12, 2015
Follow up on Forecast Made in Previous Weeks:
· Besides the minor peak on 02/12, STRAT_H appears to have two additional peaks: one on 02/14 and the other 02/18, which are very consistent with our forecasts first issued on 01/10 to occur between 02/13 and 02/18. The first two peaks mainly impact US with two rounds of cold air surges within few days apart. The third peak appears to mainly affect Eurasia with up to 60% of the area to suffer below-normal temperatures around 02/20.
· Our forecasts for STRAT_I remains unchanged, namely to occur in 02/26-03/04, as we first forecast on 01/29.
New Forecasts Made on February 12, 2015