What we do: We are making sub-seasonal forecasts for time periods of high probability of cold air outbreaks in Eurasia and North America 30-40 days in advance. We issue such forecasts on a weekly basis and this website is updated around Thursday each week.

 

New Feature: Maps of probability of cold surface temperature anomalies over both North America and Eurasia continents in the vicinity of forecasted stratospheric PULSE events

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New Forecast Made on February 11:

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STRAT_I (03/08 – 03/12), We are forecasting a new stratospheric pulse event, named as STRAT_I, to occur between 03/08 and 03/12. Associated with STRAT_I are modest cold incursions over the two continents.

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Follow up on Forecast Made in the Previous Weeks:

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STRAT_G (02/11 – 02/15), first forecasted on 01/07, is still expected to occur on time. We consider STRAT_G as the second “aftermath” event that to occur after the major stratospheric sudden warming event during the migration of the polar vortex back to the Arctic. We expect that associated with STRAT_G, mid-latitudes of both continents especially North America will have below-normal temperature.

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STRAT_H (02/23 – 02/28), first forecasted on 01/21, is still expected to occur between 02/23 to 02/28 with a peak on 02/25. STRAT_H looks to be a moderate event with a peak net mass transport into the polar stratosphere about 0.7 trillion tons per day. Associated with STRAT_H, we expect strong cold air surge over the North American continent and up to 70% of the area will be back to below-normal temperature in the last week of February.

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