(01/30/2015 − 02/05/2015)
The STRAT_G2, which has been consistently forecasted to occur 02/02-02/06 since 12/17, has made its way to peak on 02/06. This event is also strong (ranked #4 for the winter so far with the peak amplitude of one trillion tons per day). The cold air outbreaks associated with G2 already took place over North America in the last few days and continue to pound East Asia in the next few days.
We are continuing to forecast for STRAT_H, which is still expected to peak between 02/13 and 02/18 as we first forecasted on 01/10/2015. Another round of cold air outbreaks are expected to occur between 02/15 and 02/20, which have the potential to cover much of the mid latitudes with below-normal frigid temperatures, more for the area across Eurasian and North America.
Last week, we are forecasted for STRAT_I to occur at the end of February and into the beginning of March around 02/26-03/04. This cold air outbreak is also likely to bring wintery precipitation and crisp cool temperatures. We will continue to monitor this event and the strength of this system.
Forecasts Made on February 5, 2015
Follow up on Forecast Made in Previous Weeks:
· The STRAT_G2 currently occurring is expected to finish peaking on 02/06. The stratospheric polar vortex weakened by G1 was rebuilt very quickly and the G2 event is going to weaken it again. The cold air outbreaks associated with STRAT_G2 are expected to be strong and cover a vast area in the mid-latitudes.
· Originally forecasted on 01/10/2015, STRAT_H is still expected to peak between 02/13 to 02/20, and will continue to bring another round of below normal temperatures.
· Last week, STRAT_I was called, and this event is expected to occur at the end of the month of February into the first week of March, mainly between the dates of 02/26-03/04.
New Forecasts Made on February 4, 2015
· No new forecasts for a new event.