(01/24/2015 − 01/29/2015)
Our forecasts for STRAT_G1 (first forecasted on Dec. 17, 2014 to occur in the last week of January) were very successful, which turned out to be the 2nd strongest STRAT event recorded this winter (transported 1.5 trillion tons of air into polar stratosphere at its peak time on Jan. 27). This storm tore through the Northeast portions of the North American Continent and delivered over 30 inches of snow across portions of 6 states in the United States. It also produced cold air outbreaks over Eurasia (the percentage area occupied by below-normal temperature over Eurasia has been increasing from 35% on Jan 23 to 55% as of today).
This week, we are forecasting STRAT_I to occur at the end of February and into the beginning of March around 02/26-03/04.
Our forecasts for STRAT_H still call for a peak between 02/13 and 02/18, as we first forecasted on 01/10/2015. Another round of cold air outbreaks are expected to occur between 02/15 and 02/20, although the impact area may not be as extent as that of STRAT_G2.
The STRAT_G2 is expected to occur 02/02-02/06 as first forecasted 12/17. It turns out STRAT_G2 is the first aftermath event of a major STRAT event (i.e., G1), akin to the minor peak a week after STRAT_D. Therefore, the cold air outbreaks associated with G2 are expected to be more severe in terms of impact area than STRAT_G1. Based on the latest GFS forecasts, the percentage area of below-normal temperatures would exceed 60% over North America and 70% over Eurasia.
Forecasts Made on January 29, 2015
Follow up on Forecast Made in Previous Weeks:
· The STRAT_G2 is once again looking to occur between 02/02-02/06. This event is an aftermath event of STRAT_G1, which is the second strongest STRAT event recorded this winter. The cold air outbreaks associated with STRAT_G2 will be stronger with a larger impact area than that STRAT_G1.
· First forecasted on 01/10/2015, STRAT_H still looks to occur from 02/13 to 02/20, and will bring wintery precipitation back across the mid-latitudes, along with below normal temperatures.
New Forecasts Made on January 29, 2015
· This week we call for the STRAT_I event to occur at the end of February and into the beginning of March around 02/26-03/04.