(01/17/2015 − 01/23/2015)
The first peak of STRAT_G1 took place on 01/22/2015, which is responsible for the cold air outbreaks that are happening now. However, the main peak of STRAT_G1 will occur around 01/27/2015, which is very consistent with our forecasts made since Dec. 17, namely that G1 is going to take place in the last week of January. This system is capable of producing wintery storms over North America as well as Eurasia, as we forecasted since Dec. 17, 2014. Therefore, our forecasts for G1 are very successful (40+ lead time).
The STRAT_G2 is looking to be several days later than02/02-02/06 as we have been forecasted since 12/17. Or we may have to cancel the forecasts for G2. If so, G2 would be our first major “casualty” of inaccurate forecast because we have not canceled out any forecasts so far in this winter season.
Our forecasts for STRAT_H remain unchanged. The peak time will be between 02/13 and 02/18, as we first forecasted on 01/10/2015. This event will cause stronger continental scale cold outbreaks in mid-latitudes.
Forecasts Made on January 23, 2015
Follow up on Forecast Made in Previous Weeks:
·We have been consistently forecasted STRAT_G1 to be peak in the last week of January. It has a minor peak which already occurred on 01/22 and the main peak will take place around 01/27. The minor peak is responsible for the wintery storm condition that is happening now. The main peak will cause another round of cold air outbreaks over both continents, particularly over US and East Asia.
·The STRAT_G2 is looking to be a few days later than 02/02-02/06. Since it appears very weak, we may have to cancel it later on.
·Our forecasts for STRAT_H remain unchanged, peaking between 02/13 and 02/18 as we forecasted since 01/10/2015
New Forecasts Made on January 23, 2015
·No new forecasts are issued this week.