Verification Discussion (01/05/14)

  • Verification of our forecasts of STRAT events: All green lines mark the peak days of the observed STRAT events that occurred in the few day window period we expected them to occur in our forecasts. Out of the 20 local peaks, we only missed 4 peaks (10/17, 10/19, 10/24, and 12/9).  The two on 10/17 and 19 were continuation of STRAT_A. The peaks on 10/24 and 12/9 appear to be distinct events, which now are referred to as STRAT_AA and STRAT_DA events for an easy reference.

 

  • Verification of continental-scale cold air outbreaks and STRAT events: All of STRAT events were associated with cold air breaks either over one of the two continents or both. Therefore, we have forecasted successfully all continental-scale cold air outbreak events except the events around 10/21 between STRAT_A and STRAT_AA and the minor one around 12/10 associated with STRAT_DA.

 

(To be continued.)